How our GMP estimate works

How we build one GMP estimate from several public sources, what the confidence label means, and what we deliberately do not do.

1. What we read

Every 30 minutes a small program on our own server reads several public IPO GMP tracker pages, one IPO calendar, and the official NSE data. It only reads pages that load normally for any visitor. It does not log in, it does not get past blocks or challenges, and it does not read any page more often than every 15 to 30 minutes. Every page it reads is stored with a timestamp, so any number we publish can be traced back to what we saw and when.

2. How the estimate is made

For each IPO, our estimate is the plain average of the GMP quoted by the four trackers we use for the estimate, counting only the ones that quote that IPO. A tracker that shows no quote is left out; it is not counted as zero. We do not weight, adjust or "calibrate" the number. What you see is the average itself.

We do not name which tracker said what, and we never publish a single tracker's number. The estimate is ours; the inputs belong to the people who publish them.

3. The sources are not independent

This matters, so we say it plainly. When we checked, several of the most visible GMP pages were largely showing the same underlying numbers on different websites. When three trackers agree, that is often one number copied three times rather than three independent confirmations. Our confidence label measures agreement between the trackers. It does not claim that they are independent.

4. What "confidence" means

• High: at least 3 trackers quote the IPO, and the gap between the highest and lowest quote is no more than ₹2 or 10% of the estimate, whichever is larger.
• Low: only one tracker quotes the IPO, or the gap is more than ₹5 or 25% of the estimate, whichever is larger.
• Medium: everything in between.

Confidence says how settled the grey-market number is. It says nothing about whether the company or the IPO is any good.

5. Estimated listing price

Estimated listing price = upper end of the price band + our GMP estimate. The percentage is our GMP as a share of the upper price band.

6. Freezing the forecast and keeping score

After an IPO lists, we compare the last estimate we held before listing day with the actual listing price, and we never edit that estimate afterwards. We use the official NSE opening price on listing day where it is available, and a widely reported listing price otherwise (mainly for BSE SME issues).

An IPO counts as one of our forecasts only if we were already publishing an estimate while it was still open for bids. Our data starts on 20 September 2026, so IPOs that closed before then are shown for reference but are not counted in our accuracy. We would rather have a short, honest record than a long, flattering one.

7. What we do not do

• No apply, avoid or rating calls, and no "should I apply" verdicts.
• No money from companies going public, their lead managers, registrars or brokers for coverage.
• No grey-market dealing of any kind.
• No copying of other websites' tables.